Australian government officials have begun tapping bankers for advice on how to meet flood costs that could total 15 billion Australian dollars (US$14.8 billion) in Queensland, a region that accounts for a fifth of the nation's economy.
As floods surged in downtown Brisbane last week, Australian Assistant Treasurer Bill Shorten began preliminary conversations with the Australian Bankers Association and executives at several banks, including Commonwealth Bank of Australia and National Australia Bank Ltd., to discuss how best to help the region, according to representatives from both lenders.
This week, Mr. Shorten and Treasurer Wayne Swan will continue those meetings in an effort to begin tackling the rising individual, corporate and government costs, the bankers said. A spokesman for the treasurer declined to comment.
The government said it will need more than A$5 billion for rebuilding public damage alone, without counting costs to private businesses as well as lost coal, tourism and agricultural revenue that all significantly add to the total price tag. The country's big banks are ready to help a government likely to issue more debt by supporting the issuance, but won't be simply writing devastated individuals or businesses a blank check, the bankers said.
"In a bizarre sort of way, the increased debt and increased government bond issuance is good for banks, who will be interested in buying those to meet the new Basel requirements," said Steven Munchenberg, chief executive of the Australian Bankers Association, referring to new global regulations that require banks to meet tougher capital requirements. "As for businesses, banks will have to look through on a case-by-case basis and find what's best for the business and the banks. Ultimately, there will be some businesses that just won't be viable after the flooding."
Australia's fiscal position is among the among top-rated nations, according to Moody's Investors Service. But a strong fiscal position alone doesn't pay for the massive recovery effort that could take more than two years, with walkways and vital parts of the state's infrastructure washed away in floodwaters. More than 20,000 homes and businesses remain blacked out in the area around Brisbane even as some in the state's capital returned to work Monday.
At the same time, the government has refused to back down from restoring the country's budget from an A$55 billion deficit this past fiscal year to a surplus by the year ending June 30, 2013. Mr. Swan said Monday that a clean of Queensland will require billions of federal funds.
The banks have already agreed to help by offering home loan repayment deferrals and emergency credit limit for cardholders in Queensland. Beyond that, Queensland's infrastructure reconstruction presents significant challenges. A mining boom is stretching skilled labor in the country, while materials needed for rebuilding are already in short supply to the surging iron ore mines of Western Australia.
The government must also figure out how to pay for its 75% share of the disaster relief costs. Insurers and reinsurance firms will pay for the bulk of the home and office building rebuild, with roads, ports, bridges and other infrastructure falling onto the government's balance sheet. Some bankers have begun to float ideas such as a potential federal government bond aimed at the recovery effort that would include a tax incentives.
"It would be a way to target the retail bond market," said Ken Hyman, an investment manager with Sydney-based Antares Fixed Income Capital. "Backed by government and supporting Queensland, at a time when retail investors are already calling out for more fixed-income exposure."