Hotels are the first sector in the commercial real-estate market to feel the economic pinch, and next year will be a challenge for hotel owners and operators. The foundering economy likely will limit both business and leisure travel.

Even international travel to the U.S.– a bright spot so far this year for gateway markets such as New York  is expected to “moderate” due to the weakening global economy, the recent gain in the value of the U.S. dollar, and the cancellation of many long-haul flights to the U.S., noted analysts at Green Street Advisors.

So-called RevPAR – an industry measure of revenue per available room – is expected to decline by 3% to 5% for high-end hotels, according to Green Street. That could translate into a drop of between 10% and 13% in pretax cash flows for many hotel owners in 2009, on the heels of a 3% decline this year.

The bleak outlook certainly doesn’t bode well for Hilton Hotels. One of the most storied brands in the industry, Hilton was taken private late last year by Blackstone Group in a $26 billion leveraged buyout deal. So far, Hilton has been able to outperform its competitors. But some analysts believe the sharp decline in hotel valuations has knocked out much, if not all, of the $3 billion of equity Blackstone put into the deal. And a bigger, long-term risk for the private-equity giant is whether the hotel market can recover enough value five years from now, when Blackstone faces the task of refinancing the debt tied to the Hilton acquisition. (See “Blackstone’s Inauspicious Timing: Hilton Buyout“)

“If you’ve been an owner of hotels for the past couple of years, you’ve done quite well,” said Jim Woods, a partner in Dallas-based hotel developer Open Hospitality Partners. “But the next couple of quarters are going to be difficult as fundamentals are deteriorating.”But bad news for hotel owners could be good news for travelers. Readers have you noticed any declines in pricing?